Falling real wages and a surge in tax and interest payments have led to a slump in Australian living standards. Key policies to boost productivity growth include: tax reform; a cap on public spending as a share of the economy, deregulation; greater incentives to invest; and competition reforms.

Key things to keep an eye on in 2025 are: interest rates; recession risk; a potential trade war; and the Australian consumer.

Why investors should expect a somewhat rougher ride, but it may not be as bad as feared with Donald Trump's US election victory.

Dr Shane Oliver suggests five ways to help manage the noise and stay focussed as an investor with the changes in the macro enviroment.

This edition looks at why the concept of value or valuations are important in investing and what they are telling us now - particularly in relation to shares.

In the confusing and often seemingly illogical world of investing, investors often make various mistakes that keep them from reaching their financial goals. This note takes a look at the nine most common mistakes.

This week's edition looks at China’s pivot from incremental and modest policy stimulus to providing more aggressive support for its economy.

The US election has significant potential to impact markets. A Harris victory would mean more of the same, but a Trump victory could lead to uncertainty particularly around trade.

Recession risks, the escalating Israel conflict, the US election along with still stretched valuations mean a high risk of another share market correction and continued volatility.

Apart from “what will home prices do?" and "where are the best places to buy a property?" the main debate around the Australian housing market has been about poor housing affordability, occasionally interspersed with a scare that home prices will crash.

This week we take a look at why shares and other growth assets really are long term investments. In other words, its not just marketing spin to be wheeled out after sharp falls in share markets like we saw two weeks ago.

Seven key charts worth watching are: inflation; inflation expectations; global business conditions PMIs; unemployment and underemployment; profit growth; the gap between earnings yields & bond yields; & the $US.

Share markets have seen big falls on the back of rising recession fears. For the last two years there has been constant fears of a recession – or a contraction in economic activity – on the back of central bank rate hikes.

This article takes a look at the rise of populism and what it means for economic policies and investors.

This article looks at the outlook for the Australian share market which has risen to new record highs above the 8000 level for the ASX 200.

Changes in the value of the Australian dollar are important as they impact Australia’s international export competitiveness and the cost of imports, including that of going on an overseas holiday.

There has been a wall of worry for investors over the last year but as is often the case share markets climbed it. This resulted in another financial year of strong investment returns in 2023-24. But can it continue?

Dr Shane Oliver shaes his nine most important lessons from investing over the past 40 years.

National average home prices rose another 0.8% in May, pushing them further into record territory.

Real Clear Politics poll average has Biden trailing Trump by 1 to 2 points in terms of favourability and presidential voting intentions. This is well behind where he was at the same point in 2020. See next chart.

This year has seen a bit of a rollercoaster ride in interest rates expectations. This article looks at the outlook for the RBA’s cash rate.

Read about the economic and investment market implications of the 2024-25 Federal Budget announcements.

This article looks at seasonal patterns in shares and whether its time to “sell in May and go away” along the lines of the old share market saying.

The obvious issue is how vulnerable are shares? Could the bull market that got under way from the inflation and interest rate lows of 2022 (that has seen global shares rise 42% and Australian shares rise 23%) be over?

The Australian housing market has started the year on a solid note with national home prices up 1.6% over the first three months according to CoreLogic. We had thought the drag of high mortgage rates would get the upper hand again but the supply shortfall is continuing to dominate.

It’s four years since the COVID lockdowns started. The pandemic ended when it morphed into the less deadly Omicron variant in late 2021, but just as a sound can reverberate around a room the effects of the pandemic continue to reverberate in economies.

Bitcoin attracts extreme views - evangelists on the one hand and agnostics and atheists on the other in contrast to other things where the debate is between bulls and bears. This note looks at what it means for investors.

Investing can be scary and confusing at times. But the basic principles of successful investing are timeless and quotes from experts help illuminate these.

Seven key charts worth keeping an eye on are: global business conditions PMIs; inflation; unemployment and underemployment; inflation expectations; earnings revisions; the gap between earnings yields and bond yields; and the US dollar.

Last year shares climbed a “wall of worry” as inflation fell leading to prospects for lower interest rates ahead. But can it continue? After participating in a webinar on the investment outlook this note takes a look at the main questions investors have in a simple Q&A format.

The Australian tax system has five key problems: it’s heavily reliant on income tax; it’s complicated by numerous tax concessions; it’s highly progressive; it has ongoing problems with “bracket creep”; & suffers from several anachronisms.

The surge in inflation coming out of the pandemic and its subsequent fall has been the dominant driver of investment markets over the last two years – first depressing shares and bonds in 2022 and then enabling them to rebound.

Despite lots of angst at the start of the year, 2023 turned out far better than feared. Dr Shane Oliver reflects on key themes from the past year and suggests what investors should look out for in 2024

The five key themes for 2023 were: better than feared growth; disinflation; peak interest rates (probably in Australia too); lots of geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared; and AI hit the big time. This boosted shares and helped bonds with solid superannuation fund returns.

The decision by the RBA to leave rates on hold at its December meeting and whether we have reached the top or not. At its December meeting the RBA left rates on hold but retained a tightening bias with still relatively hawkish commentary.

Five reasons to expect the Australian dollar to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; short term interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative; commodities still look to have entered a new super cycle; and Australia has a solid current account surplus.

Successful investing is not always easy and can be stressful. Even in good times. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things in mind.

Australian home prices rose again in October, with the supply shortfall on the back of record immigration dominating. While this is likely to continue, there is a high risk that the impact of high interest rates will start to get the upper hand next year particularly if the RBA hikes again and unemployment rises by more than expected.

Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures & lower economic growth than pre-pandemic.

The war in Israel is terrible from a humanitarian perspective. From an economic and investment perspective the concern is that it will lead to a surge in oil prices that will add to inflation, keep interest rates higher for longer and add to the risk of recession.

This edition of Oliver's Insights looks at the impact of rising bond yields on shares, the risks flowing from the renewed conflict in Israel and comparisons to the run up to the 1987 share crash.

Starting point valuations - like yields and price to earnings ratios - are key drivers of medium-term investment returns.

Dr Shane Oliver discusses the key drivers of poor housing affordability in Australia and particularly the role played by high immigration levels.

While the risk in the short term is still on the upside for rates or a delay to the start of rate cuts, our base case is that rates will be on hold until early next year ahead of rate cuts starting in the March quarter.

It seems that the worry list for investors has become more threatening and confusing. However, to succeed, it makes sense to err on the side of cautious optimism: otherwise, there is no point in investing; growth assets like shares have trended up over the long term; and trying to get the timing right of the 2 or 3 years out of 10 when they fall can be very hard.

This article looks at the current concerns about the Chinese economic outlook and how Australia can't rely on the China/commodity boom indefinitely.

This article takes a look at why boosting productivity growth matters and why it might be hard (beyond a return to normal after pandemic related distortions).

Recession versus “goldilocks” – five reasons why we could still avoid recession

This article takes a look at the currently confusing economic landscape with some indicators being very strong and others very weak.

Seven key charts worth keeping an eye on remain: global business conditions PMIs; inflation and our Inflation Indicators; unemployment and underemployment; inflation expectations; earnings revisions; the gap between earnings yields and bond yields; and the US dollar.

Getting our personal finances right can be a challenge at times. And the surge in interest rates has arguably made it even harder for many. This article looks at some common-sense personal finance tips that may be of use.

The past financial year saw a solid rebound in investment returns, after the negative returns of the 2021-22 financial year. This note reviews the past 12 months in investment markets and looks at the outlook.

Recession has been a recurring theme over the last year or so but has intensified lately. But what's driving it? How serious is the risk of recession? And what would it mean for Australians and investors?

Dr Shane Oliver outlines the large worry list for shares; some positives that still exist; and the implications for investors

This note looks at the decline in Australia’s home ownership rate since the mid-1960s and what has driven it.

Key to watch will be bond yields, whether the economy avoids recession and where “work from home” settles.

Dr Shane Oliver and Deputy Chief Economist Diana Mousina explain what effects the Federal Budget could have on the Australian economy and investment markets.

Australian home prices rose again in April & along with other indicators suggest the home price downturn is over, but we must now watch rates and unemployment

This article takes a look at the recommendations of the independent Reivew of the RBA and it’s not clear the proposed reforms will lead to a better outcome for the Australian economy.

inflation, interest rates, recession, the US debt ceiling, geopolitics, house prices and other issues

Five charts focusing on critical aspects of investing that are insightful in times of market stress

Dr Shane Oliver looks at the outlook for Australian property prices, particuarly given the bounce in prices over the last month or so.

US banks, inflation, interest rates and recession risk - what it means for investors?

The experience of the high inflation 1970s and its aftermath hold key lessons for today.

Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on are: global business conditions PMIs; inflation; unemployment & underemployment; longer term inflatione expectations; gap between earnings & bond yields; & the US dollar

The RBA hiked again by 0.25% taking the cash rate to 3.35%. It continues to expect to increase interest rates further.

Dr Shane Oliver explains seven reasons why Australian shares are likely to outperform global shares over the medium term

2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds.

The article reviews the key developments of 2022 of relevance for investors and their impact on investment markets, and takes a look at the outlook for 2023.

The home price slump continued in November, with still more to go

The surge in inflation should start to reverse next year.

At last, it seems some of the bad news for shares appears to be abating. It’s certainly been a rough year.

Economic and financial commentary has been particularly gloomy of late, with talk of a “dire”, “grim”, “bleak”, “perilous” and “confronting” outlook.

The Government has implemented its election policies and expects lower budget deficits this year and next thanks to another revenue windfall and various savings.

Successful investing can be really hard in times like the present. Falls in share markets and other assets are stressful as no one likesto see their wealth decline and the natural inclination is to retreat to safety.

The latest client note by Howard Marks, the co-founder and co-chair of Oaktree Capital, an alternative investment manager focussing on distressed debt, on The Illusion of Knowledge about the futility of forecasting to drive investment decisions, inspired me to revisit what I had already written on this subject.

The RBA has increased its cash rate again but slowed the pace to +0.25% which took the cash rate to 2.6%....

Investors could be forgiven for looking back on the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 with fond memories – because after the initial shock in February-March 2020 it was a period of strong returns and relative calm in investment markets.

The last twenty years have seen a sharp slowdown in productivity growth in Australia

Shares remain vulnerable in the short term. They had a nice rebound from ..

“This time is different” have been described as the four most dangerous words in investing by Sir John Templeton. But there is good reason to believe this Australian home price downturn cycle will be different...

Investment markets are driven by more than just fundamentals. Investor psychology plays a huge role and helps explain why asset prices go through periodic booms and busts...

Cycles are part of life. Whether it be the cycle of day and night, seasons, tides, weather cycles from the almost weekly cycles of cold fronts that regularly blow across southeast Australia...

As widely expected, the RBA has increased the cash rate again by 0.5% taking it to 1.85%.

The start of this year has been painful for investors with sharp losses in shares and bonds, dragging most superannuation funds into negative returns for the last financial year...

I grew up in the 1970s and it was fun – Abba, Elvis, Wings, JPY, flares, cool cars, etc. But economically it was a mess.

The past financial year was poor for investors as inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears hit investment markets.

Australian household debt has risen dramatically since the 1980s and is high compared to other countries.

Share markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks continuing the plunge that started early this year due to worries about inflation, monetary tightening, recession & geopolitical issues including the invasion of Ukraine.

The RBA has hiked the cash rate again - by 0.5% taking it to 0.85% and continues to signal more rate hikes ahead.

Australian home prices fell 0.1% in May, their first decline since the pandemic.

The ALP won the election and is set to Govern most likely in its in own right or as a minority government.

Successful investing can be really difficult in times of uncertainty like now making it important to stay.

For the first time since November 2010, the RBA has raised its official cash rate - from 0.1% taking it to 0.35%.

Accessing green energy isn’t only for the wealthy. Companies like Evergen are making it more affordable for everyone. We talk to Ben Hutt, CEO & Managing Director for Evergen and Bopha Ly, Managing Director, Energy for AMP Capital’s Infrastructure Equity business to get their perspective.

As inflation returns to the global economy, can holding infrastructure assets protect a portfolio from rising prices? We explore.

The very strong employment market is putting pressure on the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates. Our Senior Economist dives deeper.

Australian election campaigns tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way.

National average property prices are likely to peak around mid-year and then enter a cyclical downswing. After 22% growth in national average home prices last year, average home price growth this year is expected to be around 1% and we expect a 5-10% decline in average prices in 2023.

Investing is often seen as complicated. This has been made worse over the years by: the increasing complexity in terms of investment products and choices; regulations and rules around investing; the role of the information revolution and social media in amplifying the noise around investment markets...

The Budget delivered no surprises when it came to super. There were two measures which had a direct impact and each of them had been released previously, one only in the past few days. Graeme Colley explains further.

In this short video, AMP Senior Economist Diana Mousina gives a round-up of the key outcomes from last night’s 2022-23 Federal Budget proposals and explains what effect they could have on the Australian economy.

The 2022-23 Budget supports investment in premium real estate assets with high-quality leasing covenants that can deliver optimal income returns through a period of volatility driven by higher interest rates.

The 2022-23 Budget provides a “magic election pudding” of more spending but lower deficits. The additional spending relates mainly to this calendar year and given the strong economy is more motivated by politics than economics.

After much anticipation, the US Federal Reserve has raised its Federal Funds target interest rate from a range of 0-0.25%, where it’s been for the last two years since the pandemic started, to the range of 0.25-0.5%.

World oil prices have spiked to their highest levels since 2008, rising more than 30% since the war in Ukraine started.

Humans do horrible things to each other, and war is the worst example of that. What was first announced by Russia earlier last week as a “peacekeeping” force ...

While the extent of the local and global economic recovery post COVID-19 is unclear, there are still opportunities for investors able to capitalise on key trends that we believe will drive the performance of commercial real estate in 2022.

What happens to interest rates is always important for investors, but particularly so at turning points in the economy. Our Senior Economist discusses why.

ShaDespite the rough and uncertain start to the year there is reason to be optimistic about the share market in 2022.

The last few days have seen a sharp escalation in the situation between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia recognising the independence of two regions in the Donbas area

This note covers the main questions investors commonly have regarding the investment outlook in a simple Q&A format.

While shares have had a nice rebound from their January lows helped in part by some good earnings news – reversing around half of their 10% or so fall, ...

Over the last six months several central banks have raised interest rates. This started in emerging markets but developed country central banks have also hiked rates...

Share markets have fallen in recent weeks on the back of worries about inflation, monetary tightening, the Omicron disruption and the rising risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

For last few decades inflation has not been much of an issue. It was all about economic activity. Books were even written about “the death of inflation”.

Despite a wall of worry with coronavirus and inflation, 2021 was a great year for diversified investors,

Just as 2020 was dominated by coronavirus so too was 2021. But 2021 turned out to be a far better year for investors. The big negatives of 2021 were of course dominated by coronavirus...

As far as real estate sectors go, retail has been the most challenged globally over the past 24 months. But for investors who are ready to look beyond the challenges, we take a look at why it's still an exciting investment and development proposition

With the global economy rapidly launching back into recovery mode and prices on the rise, real assets are uniquely positioned to help investors ride out the current inflationary surge.

In our special outlook for 2022, we look at the tough choices investors face as global economic growth picks up.

Australian home prices have boomed this year. They are up 22.2% over the 12 months to November according to CoreLogic with Hobart (+28%), Sydney (+26%), Brisbane (+25%), Canberra (+25%) and regional prices (+25%) leading the charge.

The magnitude of the coronavirus shock means it will have implications beyond those associated with its short-term economic disruption.

A retirement portfolio’s allocation of growth and defensive assets traditionally depends on an investors’ risk profile.

Post-COVID, what does the road to recovery for infrastructure look like? And what role does infrastructure play in a portfolio?

Australia’s net zero debate could leave the impression that climate change is all about heavy manufacturing, regional towns and coal-fired power stations.

If there is one “technical thing” investors should know about investing, it’s the power of compound interest.

The march of central banks towards tighter monetary policy has stepped up over the last few months.

It’s normal for bond yields to rise in economic recoveries but it’s looking increasingly likely that the nearly 40-year

There are increasing signs that science and medicine are getting the upper hand against coronavirus: new global cases are in decline;

For as long as I can recall housing affordability has been an issue in Australia but since the 1990s it’s gone from being a periodic cyclical concern to a chronic problem.

Australian GDP slowed in the June quarter & will be hit hard by the lockdowns - but here’s 7 reasons to look beyond the gloom

After surging 65% from its coronavirus low in March 2020 to its high in February this year, the Chinese share market saw an 18% decline into July.

Despite lots of worries - around the resurgence of coronavirus driven by the Delta variant, peak growth, peak monetary and fiscal stimulus and high inflation

The current environment seems to be one of extreme uncertainty. We have seen a strong economic recovery from last year’s global and Australian recessions

It seems the bad news on coronavirus doesn’t let up. The lockdown in NSW looks like going longer.

In January for investors to watch as being critical to the investment outlook this year. Put simply, where are they now?

Five ways to turn down the noise and stay focused as an investor

The past financial year saw a spectacular rebound in returns for investors as the focus shifted from the recession to recovery against a backdrop of policy stimulus and vaccines. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.

News that I and many others were effectively in lockdown from Friday was depressing. It got even more depressing when the whole of Sydney and surrounds was put into a two-week lockdown on Saturday.

The drumbeat of central banks heading towards the exits from ultra-easy monetary policy is getting louder

The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents

The Australian economic recovery remained strong in the March quarter with GDP up 1.8% – seven reasons for optimism

Inflation will likely rise further in the months ahead due to base effects, bottlenecks & reopening but it’s likely to fall back again from later this year as these drivers fade.

The 2021 Federal Budget harks back to the immediate post GFC budgets in some ways, with the Treasurer resisting any temptation to start early on the task of budget repair and doubling down on stimulus.

The Government now expects the Federal budget deficit to peak at $161bn this financial year (down from $214bn in October’s Budget) and fall to $107bn in 2021-22.

Geopolitical risks are higher than prior to the GFC reflecting three big themes: a populist backlash against economic rationalist policies; the falling relative power of the US; and the polarising impact of social media.

The Australian housing market is booming. Prices are rising sharply, auction clearance rates are very strong, sales are surging, and housing finance is around record highs.

It makes sense that the cheaper you buy an asset the higher its prospective return will be. However, this is frequently forgotten with investors often tempted to project recent returns into the future regardless of valuations.

Articles and updates. A new age of infrastructure energy and investment is dawning Preparing for the post-COVID recovery in real estate, the bonds market and more...

Global recovery is on track. Vaccines are working. JobKeeper’s end won’t derail Australia’s recovery. Inflation could become an issue in the medium term. Shares are at risk of a correction but are supported by economic and earnings recovery.

The history of cyclical bull markets in shares suggests that the rebound since last March still has a way to go.

Digital currencies and blockchain technology may have a lot to offer - but that does not mean Bitcoin will be it.

The 40-year downtrend in inflation and bond yields is likely over. But the fundamental backdrop of improving growth, rising profits and still low rates supports the case for solid 6-12 month returns from shares

The super rules change regularly, and this year is no exception.

Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong.

Will Airports ever be the same, Real estate rock stars, USA Game changing year and the face of front line responders

Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation, but investment markets should provide solid returns this year on the back of continuing economic recovery and low interest rates.

Our high-level investment view is that while shares are vulnerable to a short term correction having run up hard since early November, overall investment returns will be solid this year on the back of economic recovery (driven by stimulus and the deployment of vaccines allowing a more sustained reopening) at the same time that interest rates remain low.

US protests are only an issue for investment markets if they significantly impact economic activity

2020 turned out far better for investors than was feared. 2021 is expected to provide solid returns & see a further rotation from pandemic winners to cyclical investments.

Review of 2020, not what it was supposed to be - Outlook for 2021 - Recovery

For some years now Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has been gaining prominence as a solution to the perceived failure of traditional economic policies to achieve full employment & meet inflation targets, despite at or near zero interest rates.

The US election has been close and final counting as well as legal challenges could still upset the result, but the now highly likely outcome is a Biden Presidency.

The RBA has cut the cash rate to a record low 0.1% & announced a broad-based quantitative easing program.

Despite a 35% or so plunge in share markets earlier this year; on the back of the pandemic and rough patches in 2018, 2015 and 2011, well diversified Australian investors have seen pretty good returns over the last 10 years. The median balanced growth superannuation fund returned 5.8% pa over the five years to August and 7.3% pa over 10 years and that’s after fees and taxes. While that’s dull compared to the double digit returns of the higher inflation world of the 1980s and 1990s, it’s pretty good once low inflation of 2% pa or less is allowed for.

The 2020-21 Australian Budget – spend, spend, spend as the focus remains on recovery and jobs, jobs, jobs

Australia’s “eye popping” budget deficit and public debt blow out – can it be paid off? Does it matter?

In its September board meeting, we saw another move out of the RBA to support the Australian economy through COVID-19, and there could be more to come.

Victoria’s tightening lockdown could knock at least $12bn off the Victorian and national economy and delay the return to positive Australian GDP growth to the December quarter.

The thought of various government support measures expiring in the months ahead, causing some sort of fiscal cliff over which economies and share markets will plunge, has caused much consternation. But as with the original fiscal cliff of December 31, 2012 in the US, it’s likely to be tapered into a fiscal slope.

The past financial year was poor for investors as coronavirus knocked economies into what is likely to be their biggest hit since the 1930s. Shares were hit hard, but the blow was softened by a strong rebound in the June quarter. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.

A serious second wave of coronavirus cases in major developed countries is the biggest risk facing equity markets, and one investors will need to watch closely.

The strong rally in shares since their March lows reflects a combination of economic reopening, signs of recovery, policy stimulus and once pessimistic investors closing underweight or short positions.

Australian house prices starting to fall – collapse likely averted but expect more weakness ahead

There has been much debate about the short-term economic and investment impact of coronavirus – on economic activity, unemployment, interest rates, house prices, shares, etc.

Australia’s federal budget deficit is expected to peak at around $200bn in 2020-21, or around 10% of GDP which will be the highest since the end of WW2.

Back in January when the bushfires were raging, I feared Australia’s luck had ran out. But right now, I thank god I live in The Lucky Country!

THE INSIDE WORKINGS OF AN INVESTING RULEBOOK.

This is an update of a note I wrote last November, but after the recent plunge in shares and the associated 10% or so loss in balanced growth superannuation funds through the March quarter, it’s particularly relevant now.

After a strong rally, in the short-term shares are vulnerable to bleak economic and earnings news

Central bank support to ensure the flow of money and credit through economies is an essential part of the global and Australian coronavirus economic rescue

MARKETS IN THE AGE OF (MIS) INFORMATION

While shares have rallied 15-20% from their March low and may have started a bottoming process

Significant government support is essential to enable parts of the economy to successfully hibernate

Global share markets have fallen into a bear market, but whether this turns out to be long or short depends on how long the hit to the economy from coronavirus lasts.

The Australian housing market is at risk from the coronavirus recession Australia has now entered. A relatively short recession that sees unemployment rise to around 7.5% would likely only set prices back around 5% or so after which prices would bounce back.

Successful investing can be really difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around the impact of coronavirus on the outlook.

The rout in financial markets has continued, on the back of coronavirus, made worse by a flow on to oil markets.

How the next generation is investing?

The plunge in share markets over the last week has generated much coverage and consternation.

While reported new coronavirus cases in China have slowed, the pickup in cases outside China has led to a renewed sharp fall in share markets and bond yields.

Shares are vulnerable to a short-term correction - Key things to watch out for are recession and much higher inflation.

From bushfires to coronavirus - five ways to turn down the noise around investing

The China coronavirus outbreak has led to concerns of a global pandemic triggering an economic downturn. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond yields to rebound. However, uncertainty is high given that the coronavirus is more contagious than SARS albeit with lower mortality. Key to watch for is a peak in new cases and contained transmission in developed countries.

The Australian bushfire season that began in September has been horrific with more than 7 million hectares of bush destroyed, more than 25 deaths, significant loss of livestock, estimates of more than a billion wildlife animals killed and more than 1800 homes destroyed. More than 200 fires are still burning. Following the intensification of the bushfires over the Christmas/New Year period attention has now turned to the impact on the economy. This note looks at the key impacts.

Even if you secured a competitive package when you first took out your home loan, it’s worth reviewing each year1 to ensure the interest rates, fees and features continue to meet your needs. By refinancing you may be able to pay off your home loan sooner.

In this month’s issue we discuss how: James Maydew believes that having culture and strategy on the same blueprint is an absolute imperative climate change is impacting the real estate sector, and how leaders and businesses are standing up to the task of tackling it Julie-Anne Mizzi uses her innate passion for investing in infrastructure for those who need it, and the familiar airport retail experience is set for a makeover.

2019 saw growth slow, recession fears increase and the US trade wars ramp up, but solid investment returns as monetary policy eased, bond yields fell and demand for unlisted assets remained strong. 2020 is likely to see global growth pick up with monetary policy remaining easy. Expect the RBA to cut the cash rate to 0.25% and to undertake quantitative easing. Against this backdrop, share markets are likely to see reasonable but more constrained & volatile returns, and bond yields are likely to back up resulting in good but more modest returns from a diversified mix of assets. The main things to keep an eye on are: the trade wars; the US election; global growth; Chinese growth; and fiscal versus monetary stimulus in Australia.

While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds & cash, they provide superior long-term returns. It makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them. The best approach is to simply recognise that super and investing in shares is a long-term investment.

There is no denying concerns about global debt, seemingly never ending QE, more debt trading on negative interest rates, inequality & geopolitical threats.

This month, we’re also showcasing our investment and market insights with an analysis of the revolution sitting at the world’s doorstep. The next industrial revolution, powered by 5G, looms so large it could eclipse the three preceding. The cyber world is set to be woven into our lives and jobs with unprecedented form and speed, having a transformative impact on how we live, work, socialise and invest.

The world of investing can be confusing and scary at times. But fortunately, the basics of investing are timeless and some investors (often the best) have a knack of encapsulating these in a sentence or two that is insightful and easy to understand. In recent years I’ve written several insights highlighting investment quotes I find particularly useful. Here are some more.

Salary sacrificing into super involves reducing your take-home pay to put more money away for your retirement. See what you need to know.

Since I first looked at “Five great charts on investing for income” two years ago, the Australian cash rate has halved, 10-year bond yields have fallen by two thirds and interest rates have resumed falling globally. Ever lower interest rates and periodic turmoil in investment markets provides an ongoing reminder of the importance of the income (cash) flow or yield an investment provides. The environment of low interest rates is challenging for those relying on investment income to fund their living costs and investing for income can seem daunting. So this note looks at five charts I find useful in understanding investing for income.

The claim that Australia has gone 28 years without a recession since the early 1990s recession ended in 1991 has been subject to some criticism in recent times with the economy sliding into a “per capita recession” where economic growth has been below population growth.

The past 10 years have seen pretty good returns for well-diversified investors. The median balanced growth superannuation fund returned 7.3% pa over the five years to July and 8.2% pa over 10 years and that’s after fees and taxes.

A significant spike in Australian petrol prices would pose a further threat to consumer spending and growth in Australia, adding to pressure on the RBA to ease further.

The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists & doomsters portray it to be. Yes, it’s expensive and heavily indebted but talk of mortgage stress is overstated & it’s been under supplied The combination of rate cuts, the election and a modest regulatory relaxation have helped turn property prices back up, but the upswing is likely to be constrained

Since the RBA started cutting interest rates again back in June and in the process taking them closer to zero there has been increasing debate that it will deploy so-called “unconventional monetary policy measures” such as negative interest rates and quantitative easing. This debate has hotted up in recent weeks after the escalation in the US-China trade war posing a rising threat to global growth, numerous central banks cutting interest rates this month in a so-called “race to zero”, the Governor of Reserve Bank of New Zealand saying that negative rates are possible and RBA Governor Lowe saying that its “prepared to do unconventional things if the circumstances warranted it” even though he also said that QE was “unlikely”. News of a Danish lender offering negative mortgage rates has only added interest to the issue. But what exactly are these unconventional monetary policy measures? Do they work? Would they work in Australia? Are there better options? Will they be deployed and when? What will it all mean for investors?

Only last month share markets in the US and Australia were at record highs...

The past week saw a roller coaster ride in share markets with sharp falls after China responded to US President Trump’s latest tariffs by letting the Renminbi fall in value and ordering state-owned enterprises to halt agricultural imports from the US and the US responded by labelling China a currency manipulator, followed by a rebound as China limited downside in the Renminbi and more central banks eased only to see softness return as President Trump said US/China trade talks in September may not go ahead.

After a third round of talks made little progress last week, the US/China trade war has escalated badly with tit for tat moves on an almost daily basis by each side...

As widely anticipated, the US Federal Reserve has cut its key Fed Funds cash rate by 0.25% to a range of 2-2.25%...

Australia’s economy has often been described as “multi-speed” which occurs if growth across the states and territories varies significantly.

More Australian women are starting their own businesses but they remain under represented as entrepreneurs with many challenges holding them back. Find out more with AMP

This year, the federal government introduced laws called the Protecting Your Super package. It’s a big deal because it addresses important changes to superannuation that are here to stay. In fact, there’s even been an industry-wide campaign about how it’s time to check your super.

A common concern ever since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) ended a decade ago is that the next recession is imminent...

The past financial year saw a roller coaster ride for investors. Share markets plunged into Christmas only to rebound over the last six months. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the investment outlook for 2019-20.

The new financial year will see a raft of laws and scheduled changes coming into force impacting everything from extra super contributions, through to the age you can access the pension and the introduction of a government-funded reverse mortgage option for self-funded retirees.

Rental payments can make a real dent in your bottom line so it’s a good idea to find a balance between location and lifestyle

Australian growth is likely to be weak over the next year or so and this will prompt further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. > However, several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A helps stabilise the economy; the drag from falling mining investment is over; there is scope for extra fiscal stimulus; infrastructure spending is booming; there has been no sign of panic property selling; economic policy remains sensible; population growth remains strong; and the RBA can still do more.

The Australian dollar likely faces more downside as Australian growth is weaker than US growth and the RBA is likely to stimulate more than the Fed. However, downside may be limited to around $US0.65 given that the $A has already had a large fall, short positions in the $A are large, the iron ore price remains high (for now) and the Fed is also heading towards rate cuts. Given the downside risks for the $A and that being short the $A is a good hedge against threats to the global outlook it still makes sense for Australian investors to maintain a decent exposure to foreign currency via unhedged global investments.

Key points The RBA’s latest rate cut is aimed at heading off a further slowing in growth which would threaten higher unemployment and lower for longer inflation. Cutting the inflation target would be a big mistake. More rate cuts are likely to be needed ultimately taking the cash rate to a low of 0.5% next year. Ideally this will be combined with more fiscal stimulus. For investors it means low interest rates for even longer.

The Liberal-National Coalition has retained power in Australia’s Federal election. Find out what it means from an economic perspective. Learn more with AMP Capital.

The negatives weighing on Australian residential property prices remain significant but the past few weeks have seen a number of developments...

If you’re relocating to a new city, it’s a good idea to do your homework about living costs…particularly if it’s Sydney.

The trade war between the US and China has returned after talks to resolve their trade differences broke down...

Which of these rookie errors sound all too familiar when it comes to you and your squad?

Seasonal patterns typically see shares do well from around November to May and not so well from May to November...

Surprisingly weak Australian inflation has led to expectations the Reserve Bank will soon cut rates...

Australian elections tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way...

The 2019-20 Budget “delivers” the long-awaited surplus and increased fiscal stimulus mainly via tax cuts/offsets...

Find out how the measures announced in the 2019-20 Federal Budget could affect you Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has handed down the Morrison Government’s first Federal Budget. Among the proposed changes were personal income tax cuts and changes to super rules. Read on for a round-up of the proposals put forward and a look at how they might affect your household expenses and financial future, whatever your stage of life

Now you can put more into super at the concessional rate of tax, starting from the 2019-20 financial year.

What to get right when it comes to money matters

The past week has seen a renewed intensification of concerns about global growth. Bond yields have plunged and associated growth worries have weighed on share markets...

Working out your risk profile is the first step towards developing a diversified investment portfolio

Growing support for higher taxes on the rich and greater government intervention in the economy suggest median voters have shifted to the left...

Dividends are great for investors. They augur well for earnings growth, provide a degree of security in uncertain times, are likely to comprise a relatively high proportion of returns going forward and provide a relatively stable source of income...

While nearly nine in 10 say they have a preference, less than five in 10 have discussed their wishes with their family. What about you?

Successful investing should be simple but increasing rules, regulations, choices and social media are making it anything but. At its core, it is still simple though...

While you’ve still got time on your side, check out this list of things to think about, so you can hopefully continue the party in retirement.

AMP Capital's Chief Economist Shane Oliver gives his forecast for house prices, economic growth and interest rates.

Australian home prices are likely to fall another 5-10% this year driven by a further 15% or so fall in Sydney & Melbourne. Tight credit, rising supply and falling price expectations are the main negatives...

Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was...

The Fed has raised interest rates for the ninth time since first raising rates this cycle three years ago, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 2-2.25% to 2.25-2.5% reflecting ongoing confidence in US growth...

If your SMSF contains residential investment properties, it’s understandable you could be feeling nervous...

In the current economic environment many companies are finding it difficult to grow earnings organically so they are turning to acquisitions more frequently...

Under the First Home Super Saver Scheme, individuals (who've never owned a home) are accessing a portion of their super savings to do so. First home buyers have withdrawn more than $5 million from superannuation funds1 across the board under a federal government scheme designed to make housing more affordable. Townsends Business and Corporate Lawyers special counsel Michael Hallinan said he was surprised there had been such significant uptake in the scheme's first few months of operation. This was because there seemed to have been too little time to accumulate sufficient eligible contributions to make accessing the scheme – which can only be done once – worthwhile. The First Home Super Saver scheme has been up and running since July 1 this year.

> The pullback in shares could still have further to go but a deep (grizzly) bear market is unlikely as US, global or Australian recession are unlikely. > Increasing US Federal Reserve openness to a pause in raising rates, the likelihood of a US/China trade deal sometime in the next six months and the plunge in oil prices all add to confidence that a grizzly bear market is unlikely.

> Getting your personal finances right can be a challenge. Here are 13 tips that may be of use: shop around when it comes to financial services; don’t take on too much debt; allow that interest rates can go up as well as down; allow for rainy days; credit cards are great but they deserve respect; use your mortgage (if you can) for all longer term debt; start saving and investing early; allow that asset prices go up and down; try and see financial events in their longer-term context; know your risk tolerance; make the most of the Mum and Dad bank; be wary of the crowd; and there is no free lunch...

We check out the three largest contributors to household spending in Australia and where people would source cash if living expenses increased. Find out more with AMP.

Some commentators claim shares are way overvalued and so a crash is inevitable...

Dr Shane Oliver explains what investors should keep in mind.

Sharp market falls with headlines screaming that billions of dollars have been wiped off the share market (funny that you never see the same headlines on the way up!) are stressful for investors as no one likes to see the value of their investments decline. However, several things are worth bearing in mind...

Which of these money mistakes sound all too familiar when it comes to you and your squad? Find out more with AMP.

The first strategy is to always pay more than the minimum.

A surge in financial information and opinion combined with our inclination to focus on negative news risks making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery, more reactive, less reflective & more short term. This is potentially harmful to our long-term financial health.

The period August to October is a time for anniversaries of financial market crises – the 1929 share crash, the 1974 bear market low, the 1987 share crash, the Emerging market/LTCM crisis in 1998, and of course the worst of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008...

For years now, many have told us that Australia is heading for an imminent recession. By contrast official forecasts have long been looking for several years of above trend growth. In the event neither has happened and we don’t see them happening anytime soon. Against this backdrop there are five things you should know about the Australian economy...

The past five years have seen pretty good returns for well-diversified investors. While cash and bond returns have been modest, growth assets have been strong. Average balance growth superannuation funds have returned 8.5% pa over the five years to June and that’s after fees and taxes. This is particularly impressive given that inflation has been around 2%.

For the last two calendar years the Australian dollar has defied our expectations for weakness. But after hitting $US0.81 in January it’s been trending down as US interest rates fell below the Australian cash rate, the threat of a US-driven trade war increased and it recently broke below a short-term range around $US0.74 and fell as low as $US0.72 on fears of contagion to global growth from a crisis in Turkey.

More than one in five Australian’s in their mid 20s still live at home. Find out why and learn more with AMP.

This list of common money personalities could shed light on how you and those around you measure up. Find out more with AMP.

Find out what lender's mortgage insurance is and how it could affect your home loan and what you pay back. AMP explains in simple terms.

FAQ regarding AMP and the Royal Commission

AMP Tomorrow Maker Sam Marwood and friends are matching retiring farmers with those wanting to work the land but lack the financial means.

Choosing the right super investment options at the right time could make a difference to how much money you have when you retire. Find out more with AMP.

Eligible first home buyers can now withdraw certain voluntary super contributions to put toward a home deposit. Find out more with AMP.

Aussies aged 65 and over can now top up their super with the proceeds from the sale of their main residence. Learn more about downsizing for retirement with AMP.

Find out how AMP News&insights readers will be keeping their kids entertained in the school holidays without forking out a bundle of cash. Follow AMP's budget tips for the school holidays.

If you file for divorce, or separate from your de facto, who gets to keep the superannuation money? Discover more about superannuation and divorce today with AMP.

Retirement planning? Ensure you make the most of your money. Discover how to make every dollar count with these five simple tips. Learn more today with AMP.

See what you need to know about claiming work-related expenses and don’t forget to lodge your tax return by 31 October, unless you’re using a tax agent.

How much super should I have at my age? If you’re wondering whether your super is on track, compare it to others your age. Learn more today with AMP.

With comprehensive credit reporting due to kick off from 1 July 2018, paying your bills on time will become even more important.

This financial year is the first time employees can claim a tax deduction for their personal super contributions. Find out more with AMP.

Everyone is different, so it’s important to ask yourself the right questions as the cover you require will depend on multiple factors.

We generally need to make earnings from 40 to 50 years in the workforce extend across what could be 80 to 90 years of living.

Raising kids can be an expensive business, so make sure you’re informed. What is the cost of raising a child in Australia? Discover more today with AMP.

Changes aimed at improving housing affordability have passed through parliament. Find out more with AMP.

Want to know how to live a longer, healthier life and make your money last? AMP explores what we can learn from the Blue Zones and the secrets of a long life.

If you’re wondering whether super is improving retirement outcomes for Australians, AMP takes a look at some of the findings.

If you can’t decide between a fixed or variable rate home loan, a split home loan could provide the best of both worlds. Discover the benefits with AMP.

The recent share pullback has seen much coverage and generated much concern. Dr Shane Oliver offers seven considerations for investors.

Investment bonds (also known as insurance or growth bonds) can be a tax-effective way to invest and save for the future. Find out more with AMP.

Achieving financial independence doesn’t have to be complex. Five commonsense steps could help you enjoy the life you want to lead.

Investing your super in an ethical way is a growing trend in Australia. Learn more about responsible and ethical super investment with AMP.

Get up to speed with the government subsidies you may be able to access before the kids go back to school. Browse by state and territory allowances.

Most Australians indicate their biggest life goal is a financial one, but many admit failing to plan is a roadblock.

A survey has revealed that around 90% of Aussies make impulse purchases. Find out how you can make your money go further with AMP.

Looking for a cheap holiday destination that won’t break the bank? Discover some of the best options both at home and abroad. Learn more today with AMP.

Find out where and what retirees are investing and spending their superannuation money on, and how you can use your super money today.

AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver shares 5 reasons why the Australian property market is more complicated than the crash calls suggest.

Estate planning is about more than just making a will. Learn how to make sure you and your money are well looked after later in life.

Are you feeling the pinch? There are a couple of key principles you can follow to help improve your financial situation.

Discover the many ways that you can boost your superannuation and reap the rewards in retirement. Learn more with AMP today.

Increased life expectancy means more Aussies will need to retire later in life. Find out about the implications of this and the considerations you may need to make.

The best ways to sustain your physical, mental and financial wellbeing are sometimes the simplest. Discover five key tips to happy and healthy ageing.

Find out what lies ahead for the spring property market for first home buyers and upgraders from AMP Capital economist, Diana Mousina.

There are several questions people have about insurance. See what they are and what you can do! – AMP

See why more Aussies are choosing to live with their parents for longer.

An annuity provides you with a guaranteed income in retirement, regardless of how markets perform. Check out the pros and cons.

You’ve made an offer on your first property, but you’re not home and hosed yet. Find out what you can expect in the final weeks before settlement.

If you’re looking to turn your gap year into something employers will value, check out these five things worth taking note of.

Don't know whether to rent or buy a home? Check out the latest economic outlook to help you understand the benefits and downsides of both options.

If you’re wondering whether your super is on track, compare it to others your age.

Depending on your situation, there may be pros and cons to clearing your student debt before you have to. Here’s what you need to know!

Understand the difference between retirement age and preservation age? See how they affect your ability to retire, and the options available to you.

If you or someone you know has recently been made redundant, check out our 5-point action plan for what to do next.

The Australian retail environment remains in a tough position due to factors weighing on consumer demand along with discounting pressures from competitors.

More than ever, smart credit card use extends far beyond just clearing your debt.

Six things to think about when organising your family finances.

The price of childcare may be a deterrent to working, but loss of income, super and other benefits may cost more.

Taking out a mortgage together means commitment and compromise. Find out what you and your partner should consider early on.

Many Australians, in particular low-income earners, are set to benefit from the latest superannuation changes. See how new rules could impact you.

Is growth still in the forecast for the new financial year? Shane Oliver reveals his predictions

Economic abuse is recognised as a form of domestic violence in many, but not all, Australian states.

Discover the misconceptions of taking a gap year as a working adult and see why a sabbatical or career break may be just what you need.

Superannuation isn’t usually included in your will, so if you want it to end up in the right hands, it’s important to be across what you need to do.

Find out about investment opportunities in 2017 from Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Investors.

With superannuation changes taking effect on 1 July 2017, find out how to use the time left to take advantage of potential opportunities.